Crumbling Yet Unbroken: The Chronic Crisis of “Three Lows and Three Highs” in a Risk-Shrouded World Economy (2008–2025)

摘要

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, the world economy and financial system have entered a prolonged phase of structural adjustment. The development paradigm once supported by rapid growth, deepening globalization, and accommodative macroeconomic policies has gradually receded, giving way to a new configuration characterized by persistently low growth, heightened uncertainty, and intertwined structural risks. Following the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, these challenges have become even more complex: global growth momentum has weakened markedly; inflation and interest rates have risen; fiscal deficits and public debt burdens continue to expand; globalization has encountered mounting resistance; and trade and supply chains are undergoing accelerated fragmentation. Emerging forces such as artificial intelligence (AI) and green technologies offer substantial potential, yet simultaneously introduce new asymmetries and regulatory challenges. Against this backdrop, the vulnerability of the world economic and financial system has increased. Meanwhile, the intensifying trend of population ageing further amplifies long-term uncertainties regarding global economic prospects. This paper aims to systematically examine the evolution, drivers, and internal logic of the world economy under major shocks and deep structural shifts, providing an analytical framework for understanding the profound transformation currently underway.